Guinea-Bissau and the World Community

As with elections in the past, Guinea-Bissau is counting on assistance from the world community through the United Nations and European Union. In those elections other nations have offered monetary assistance, as well as assistance with election observation (Refworld). The leaders of this small nation feel that the encouragement of the more industrialized and rich nations that make up the United Nations and European Union is key to having a successful and fair election. However, given the disabling events that have taken place in the past, international organizations have certain fears for the upcoming legislative elections, but positive events are taking place as well.

The presence of the military is a potentially troubling aspect that the United Nations. Fears are springing up that the military could exert undue force in this election and change the outcome from what might be intended. Another valid fear that international actors have is the influence of the unlawful drug traffickers. As their power grows the possibility of a fair election lessens. This threat is given credence by the fact that the attorney general Manuel Cabal’s life has been threatened for investigating charges of drug trafficking (Refworld). A third, possibly fatal aspect is the threat of terrorism. Officials in Guinea-Bissau have detained two Mauritanian citizens in connection with the death of four French citizens and, in doing so have received threats of retribution (All Africa).

With all of those factors taken into account there is still positive news from Guinea-Bissau. In total 72% of voters have been registered and the United Nations estimates that the country is 70% prepared to hold these elections. Also, the International Monetary Fund after having withdrawn funds in 2001 has reinstated aid to Guinea-Bissau on a conditional basis. The European Unions has also contributed 600,000 Euro to help with the cost of the election (Refworld).

Reforms have been suggested by the United Nations such as greater voter registration efforts and voter education to a higher degree than in the past, but the already fragile hope for a peaceful election in Guinea-Bissau hangs by a thread and any major negative events could throw it off course (United Nations).

Sources:
1. All Africa
2. UN Refugee Agency’s RefWorld
3. United Nations: Background Paper on Guinea-Bissau legislative elections on 16 November 2008

Ballot Business

Because Guinea-Bissau is a parliamentary system, each voter chooses a party as represented on the following ballot for the legislature:

(Source: http://aceproject.org/ero-en/regions/africa/GW/Guinea-Bissau%20-%20ballot%20paper%20(leg)%204.jpg)

Each party is represented not only by the party name, but by a party seal and flag. In all ballots which we have been able to uncover the PAIGC has been listed first, possibly due to the PAIGC’s historical legacy as the militant revolutionaries who gained initial independence from Portugal. Their placement on the ballot has probably also contributed to their political success in previous parliamentary elections. The PAIGC’s seal and flag are also nearly identical to the seal and flag of Guinea-Bissau, most likely due to this same revolutionary legacy and likely also contributing to their success.

The ballots for the 2005 presidential election featured pictures of the candidates along with their party affiliation. The CIA World Fact Book places adult literacy at 42.4% of the total population, and only 27.4% of the female population. Because Guinea-Bissau has universal suffrage for those over 18 the inclusion of graphic representations of parties and photos of candidates on the ballots is a way for those who cannot read to differentiate between parties and candidates.

(Source: http://aceproject.org/ero-en/regions/africa/GW/Guinea-Bissau%20-%20ballot%20paper%20(pres)%202.jpg)

Sources:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pu.html

http://aceproject.org/regions-en/gi/GW/default

Written by: Andrea

Contributions by: Andrew

2004 Electoral Rewind

In order to be prepared for the parliamentary election coming up on November 16^th (pending funding from some external source) we’re going to do a little recap of the trials and tribulation of the last parliamentary election, which happened on March 28^th, 2004. The results were as follows:

Party	Valid Votes	% [of Valid Votes]	Seats
African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC)	141,455	31.45%	45
Social Renovation Party (PRS)	11,354	2.52%	35
United Social Democratic Party (PUSD)	72,362	16.09%	17
Electoral Union (UE)	18,253	4.06%	2
United Popular Alliance	5,776	1.28%	1
Others	100,555	22.36%	0

Source: http://www.electionguide.org/results.php?ID=195)

These numbers suggest that the vote remainder (e.g. LR Imperiali) or averages method (e.g. D’Hondt ) are beneficial to the larger parties, PAIGC and PRS.

We mentioned last week that the upcoming election was appealing to foreign donors for financing, which is not surprising in the context: Guinea-Bissau’s last parliamentary election was funded by foreign backers. The primary reasoning behind this funding was a hope that through free and fair elections Guinea-BissauSierra Leone could become an example for unstable countries such as , Liberia and Cote d’Ivoire which are in its geographical proximity. This was not a success. The elections were plagued with accusations of election fraud made by the PRS, and disenfranchisement was rampant.

Foreign observers from the United Nations, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries, La Francophonie and bilateral donors such as Portugal, Russia and the United States were present and noted that “one third of all polling stations in Bissau had remained closed.” This is particularly unsettling because Bissau is home to a third of the countries 1.3 million people.

Polling stations that were closed were open the next day for voting, but there is no assurance that all those who had attempted to vote on the actual election had the opportunity to cast their ballots. A number of polling stations which opened hours behind schedule on election day were told to remain open later in order for more citizens to vote, “…though an electricity cut meant that voting would have to take place by torch and candle light.”

During the previous election funding came primarily from western sources such as the United States, Russia, and Portugal. Given the recent increase in interaction between China and Guinea-Bissau, and the PRC’s avid interest in currying favor among African nations we wonder if the funding for this year’s election might not have a more diverse background. On August 28^th of this year ground was broken on new government ministerial buildings that are being built thanks to funds donated by the PRC. President Vieira remarked that ”the Guinea-Bissau government was sincerely grateful for China's generous help” and “the Chinese government and its people have always been willing to help African nations as a whole,” There have also been reports of Macau and mainland China interest in investing in Guinea-Bissau in a number of areas including telecommunications, natural resources, and a potential buy out of Bissau Air by the Chinese government. We suspect that this evidence of increased economic dealings will be followed by greater investment in Guinea-Bissau’s infrastructure in order to better facilitate trade and significant financial assistance in the November 16^th election to strengthen ties with the Guinea-Bissau government.

But no matter what the funding source this year, the lack of organization in Guinea-Bissau’s previous parliamentary election and the added unrest caused by President Vieira’s dissolution of parliament in August it’s safe to say that the upcoming election is sure to be an interesting occasion.

Sources:

http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=49307

http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=49802

http://www.electionguide.org/results.php?ID=195

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-08/29/content_9734165.htm

http://www.macaudailytimesnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=16447&Itemid=28

Written by Andrea

Contributions by Andrew

Election Woes in the Time of Cholera

There are two news events in Guinea-Bissau to take note of and a third event which could have implications for the future presidential candidate. The news that “The Bissau-Guinean Supreme Court announced that 21 political parties and coalitions have registered for the November 16 legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Cape Verde and Guinea Bissau (PAIGC) led by Carlos Gomes, Jr., and the Party for Social Renovation (PRS) are among the parties which will contest these legislative elections. President Nino Vieira has appealed to the international community for financial assistance in the amount of 3.7 million Euros to organize the elections.” This means that the candidates have been nominated and accepted as legitimate by their congress, which should set the stage for any campaigning the various parties might do. It also brings to the forefront that Guinea-Bissau cannot actually afford to hold their own elections, which might imply that spending cuts will necessitate fewer polling places and lead to disenfranchised voters or other negative impacts.

The other major piece of news regarding the campaign would be the massive cholera outbreak which the World Health Organization just upgraded to the status of an emergency, at 6,461 cases of Cholera in Guinea-Bissau and other regional countries and approximately a 94% fatality rate. The government’s inability to control the outbreak should be a focus of the candidates of the election. If you examine the deposition of previous candidates “He couldn’t solve the problems”, any Prime Minister selected at the conclusion this campaign would do well to ensure he either solves the problems or at least controls this outbreak.

Sources for this would include the U.S. State department and Allafrica.com.

GB in the PRC

16 September 2008: At the close of his visit to the Paralympic Games in Beijing, President Joao Bernardo Vieira met with PRC Chairman Hu Jintao.

"On China-Africa relations, the Chinese president pointed out that it was an important part of China’s independent foreign policy of peace, as well as China's long-term strategic choice to consolidate and develop friendly cooperation with the African countries. The implementation of the eight policy measures towards Africa that the Chinese government announced at the Beijing summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) has made significant achievements. China has increased aid to Africa, basically finished writing off debts and tariff exemption and successfully launched China-Africa Development Fund. Such China-assisted projects as schools, hospitals and agricultural technology demonstration centers are under implementation and China has helped the African countries train 8,400 people. China will continue to work with African countries to comprehensively implement the consensus reached at the Beijing summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), and will push forward the China-Africa new strategic partnership in a down-to-earth manner, he added" (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China)

Read the full article here: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

Political Parties

There are over 35 active political parties in Guinea-Bissau (Macau Daily 2008). Three major parties control most of the parliamentary seats. These three parties are the African Party for Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC), the Social Renovation Party (PRS), and the United Social Democratic Party (PUSD) (Bureau of African Affairs 2008). These parties signed a national stability pact in March 2007, with the goal of preventing coups that had caused instability in the past. On July 25, 2008 the PAIGC party left the pact. The impact that PAIGC's absence will have is unknown. Some worry that the pact is needed to prevent a coup or takeover following the upcoming parliamentary election (IRIN 2008).

The existence of so many political parties in Guinea-Bissau means that individual citizens have the opportunity to vote for a party that addresses very specific issues they are concerned with. However, there are problems that can be argued to result from so many political parties in the states. (1) When there are many political parties, some tend to focus on a single issue, or represent a single group of people. This happens because if all the parties were representing broad ideologies, the parties would overlap and some would be the same. It would be very difficult to have 35 different political parties. If political parties are focused on very specific issues rather than broad platforms, it may be hard to establish decisions on issues that are not addresses by the party's platforms and ideals. When decisions are made regarding issues that most of the parties in parliament do not have a particular stance on, the decisions are unpredictable. That means voters cannot vote for a party that will represent them on the issue, because the party has no stance and may vote either way in parliament. (2) Guinea-Bissau's proportional system enables many of the parties to gain seats in parliament (In a plurality system, like the United States, it is much more difficult for minority parties to gain seats in the legislature). The diversity of parties with seats in legislature may cause a fragmented parliament. (3)The fragmentation of the legislature and political arena, in combination with the poor living conditions in Guinea-Bissau, makes the state more vulnerable to coups. (4) Finally, with 35 political parties in Guinea-Bissau, it is difficult for voters to know about each party running and what those parties represent. Even after learning about the parties, keeping them straight would be hard. Some parties have very similar names. For example the Democratic Front and the Democratic Social front sound similar. A voter could vote for one with the intention of voting for another if they were unaware that there were 2 parties with that name and not looking out for it while voting. Similarly, the Renewal and Development Party, Progress and Renewal Party, and Social Renewal party could cause confusion for voters who are unaware of the small differences in the names and not watching for them as they vote. Unfortunately, this are not the only examples of parties in Guinea-Bissau that have similar names.

List of Political Parties in Guinea-Bissau

Democratic Alliance (DA), Guinean Socialist Alliance (ASG), Guinean Civil Forum-Social Democracy (FCGSD), Democratic Front (FD), Democratic Social Front (FDS), Front for the Liberation and Independence of Guinea (FLING), Guinean League for Ecological Protection (LIPE), Guinean Democratic Movement (MDG), Movement for Unity and Democracy (MUDE), African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), Democratic Convergence Party (PCD), Democratic Party for Progress (PDP), Democratic Socialist Party (SDS), Manifest Party of the People (PMP), Popular Party (PP), Guinean People's Party (PPG), Renewal and Development Party (PRD), Progress and Renewal Party (PRP), Social Renewal Party (PRS), Social Democratic Party (PSD), Socialist Party of Guinea-Bissau (PS-GB), Solidarity and Labor Party (PST), Labor Party (PT), National Unity Party (PUN), United Social Democratic Party (PUSD), Resistance of Guinea-Bissau-Bafata Movement (RBG-MB), Union for Change (UM), and National Union for Democracy and Progress (UNDP) (African Elections Database 2007)

Works Cited in This Post

African Elections Database. "Guinea-Bissau." 17 April 2007. Accessed 10 September 2008.

Bureau of African Affairs. U.S. State Department. "Guinea-Bissau." July 2008. Accessed 10 September 2008.

IRIN Daily News. "Election Fears as Unity Government Splits." 31 July 2008. Accessed 10 September 2008. ReportId=79558>

Macau Daily. "Guinea-Bissau Announces November Poll." 28 March 2008. Accessed 10 September 2008.

Guinea-Bissau Government History

The history of Guinea-Bissau's government is important to know before diving into the current events about their upcoming parliamentary elections. Guinea-Bissau was originally a Portugese colony that gained independence from them in 1974. The country has never really had prolonged political stability with military coups since becoming autonomous. During the presidental elections in July 2005, VIEIRA was elected on a second ballot over his top competitor SANHA. The legislative branch of Guinea-Bissau is the unicameral National People's Assembly. This congress consisted of several different parties and elections are held for it every four years. The party that won most of the seats back in the 2004 elections was the PAIGC with slightly over 31% of the vote. However, this branch was dismissed by the president because they failed to form a coalition with the other parties.


-Seth P.


Source: CIA - The World Factbook