2004 Electoral Rewind

In order to be prepared for the parliamentary election coming up on November 16^th (pending funding from some external source) we’re going to do a little recap of the trials and tribulation of the last parliamentary election, which happened on March 28^th, 2004. The results were as follows:

Party	Valid Votes	% [of Valid Votes]	Seats
African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC)	141,455	31.45%	45
Social Renovation Party (PRS)	11,354	2.52%	35
United Social Democratic Party (PUSD)	72,362	16.09%	17
Electoral Union (UE)	18,253	4.06%	2
United Popular Alliance	5,776	1.28%	1
Others	100,555	22.36%	0

Source: http://www.electionguide.org/results.php?ID=195)

These numbers suggest that the vote remainder (e.g. LR Imperiali) or averages method (e.g. D’Hondt ) are beneficial to the larger parties, PAIGC and PRS.

We mentioned last week that the upcoming election was appealing to foreign donors for financing, which is not surprising in the context: Guinea-Bissau’s last parliamentary election was funded by foreign backers. The primary reasoning behind this funding was a hope that through free and fair elections Guinea-BissauSierra Leone could become an example for unstable countries such as , Liberia and Cote d’Ivoire which are in its geographical proximity. This was not a success. The elections were plagued with accusations of election fraud made by the PRS, and disenfranchisement was rampant.

Foreign observers from the United Nations, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries, La Francophonie and bilateral donors such as Portugal, Russia and the United States were present and noted that “one third of all polling stations in Bissau had remained closed.” This is particularly unsettling because Bissau is home to a third of the countries 1.3 million people.

Polling stations that were closed were open the next day for voting, but there is no assurance that all those who had attempted to vote on the actual election had the opportunity to cast their ballots. A number of polling stations which opened hours behind schedule on election day were told to remain open later in order for more citizens to vote, “…though an electricity cut meant that voting would have to take place by torch and candle light.”

During the previous election funding came primarily from western sources such as the United States, Russia, and Portugal. Given the recent increase in interaction between China and Guinea-Bissau, and the PRC’s avid interest in currying favor among African nations we wonder if the funding for this year’s election might not have a more diverse background. On August 28^th of this year ground was broken on new government ministerial buildings that are being built thanks to funds donated by the PRC. President Vieira remarked that ”the Guinea-Bissau government was sincerely grateful for China's generous help” and “the Chinese government and its people have always been willing to help African nations as a whole,” There have also been reports of Macau and mainland China interest in investing in Guinea-Bissau in a number of areas including telecommunications, natural resources, and a potential buy out of Bissau Air by the Chinese government. We suspect that this evidence of increased economic dealings will be followed by greater investment in Guinea-Bissau’s infrastructure in order to better facilitate trade and significant financial assistance in the November 16^th election to strengthen ties with the Guinea-Bissau government.

But no matter what the funding source this year, the lack of organization in Guinea-Bissau’s previous parliamentary election and the added unrest caused by President Vieira’s dissolution of parliament in August it’s safe to say that the upcoming election is sure to be an interesting occasion.

Sources:

http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=49307

http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=49802

http://www.electionguide.org/results.php?ID=195

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-08/29/content_9734165.htm

http://www.macaudailytimesnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=16447&Itemid=28

Written by Andrea

Contributions by Andrew