Ain’t no coups like Guinea-Bissau coups, cause the Guinea-Bissau coups don’t stop!

"No one has the right to massacre the people of Guinea-Bissau in order to steal power by means of the gun” was the word from President Vieira on November 23rd, 2008 (less than a week after parliamentary elections) in response to a recent attempt on his life. The statement rang especially hollow, in part because Vieira himself came to power in a military uprising in 1980; The truth of the matter is that in Guinea-Bissau no one may have the right to a coup d’etat, but their history of effectiveness means that they will continue to be used as a mechanism for social change, especially by minority groups with little faith in the electoral system.

The most recent attempted coup was perpetrated by disgruntled members of the armed forces allegedly led by Guinea Bissau Navy Sergeant Alexandre Ntchama Yala – nephew of former President Kumba Yala. Kumba Yala has recently accused Vieira of being “the country's top drug trafficker” – no small charge considering the sheer scope of the drug trafficking problem in Guinea-Bissau, which borders on being a narco-state. Before the attempted assassination police attempting to take Yala into custody for questioning relating to his recent drug allegations against the President were fought off by supporters. Yala’s party, the Social Renewal Party (PRS) received only 28 of the 100 seats in the November 16th parliamentary elections, causing him to denounce the elections as rigged, despite assurances from the African Union as well as United Nations observers that the elections were “free and fair”- or at least free and fair enough that the international observers weren’t going to raise any fuss about it. Whether or not these parliamentary elections were free or fair is perhaps not the most pressing concern when the President is attempting arrest his political rivals.

After successful coups both in 1980 and 1999 (the former putting now-President Vieira in power and the latter ousting him) as well as attempted coups in 1985 and this past August, violence seems like a viable option to dissenting parties – especially on the eve of elections which they see as illegitimate. While the most recent coup against President Vieira was unsuccessful due to his prior knowledge of the attack, given the historical inclination to and success of violent uprising in post-colonial Guinea-Bissau one can assume that it will be by far the last attempt in the poverty-stricken former Portuguese colony. Coup d’états occur when there is unrest in a country, and when they believe that the coups could succeed. The rampaging cholera epidemic and rampant narcotic trafficking in Guinea-Bissau create a strong case for unrest, and there historical examples of successful coup d’états in both the country and the region. The perpetrators of the coup certainly believed both of these criteria were met, and that does not bode well for the future stability in Guinea-Bissau - regardless of the praise international organization may heap upon the recent parliamentary elections.

Sources:
http://www.casavaria.com/cafesentido/2008/11/28/802/recent-coup-attempt-could-destabilize-guinea-bissau/
http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/focus_record/article01/indexn2_html?pdate=261108&ptitle=For%20Guinea-Bissau,%20its%20another%20coup%20too%20many
http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportId=81628
http://news.myjoyonline.com/international/200811/23243.asp
http://www.apanews.net/apa.php?page=show_article_eng&id_article=82328

Stability / Continuity: Election Day 2008

Election day has come and gone in Guinea-Bissau and with initial vote counting completed, the Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) has once again won a decisive victory. Eighty-two percent of Guineans participated in the 16 November elections, awarding 67 seats to the PAIGC, 28 to the Party for Social Renewal (PRS), and three to the Republican Party for Independence and Development (PRID). The National Democratic Party and the Democratic Alliance each took one seat.

Voter turnout in the past elections in Guinea-Bissau has been very high, and this year was no exception. Vladimir Monteiro a spokesmen for the United Nations office in Guinea-Bissau calculated that the turnout in this parliamentary election was about 75 to 80 percent. Monteiro also expressed pleasure in the presence of the many women that both voted and helped oversee the election process.

Calling the electoral process a “victory for democracy” a special envoy of the United Nations was impressed with what they saw. International observers were out in force for the election; in total more than 150 United Nations observers oversaw the election process. No major problems were reported from any of the U.N. participants and all indications are that they are confident that the outcome will truly reflect the will of the people.

Another international group with a vested interest in the election was the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). A total of 45 election observers from ECOWAS not only observed the voting but the opening and closing of the polls and are today observing the counting process. Theses agents were deployed in many of the polling stations around the country and were pleased with the following aspects:

1. Election Commissions were prepared to hold the election

2. Voter turnout was high

3. Voters were in good spirits

4. Election officials adequately knew the rules and the processes

5. There was a calmness felt amongst the voters

6. The process was smooth

7. The voting was without hindrance.

Surprisingly, ECOWAS had only two minor complaints:

1. Election material arriving late to Bissora

2. A low supply of indelible ink at polling stations.

These minors occurrences had little to no affect on the well run election process and seemingly had no affect on the outcome of the election.

In the 2004 parliamentary election cycle, the PAIGC won a plurality of 45 seats. In last Sunday’s election the former party of now independent (in-name-only) President Vieira won a clear majority in the legislative body. Leader of the PAIGC, Carlos Gomez Jr. was returned to the post of Prime Minister. In the past parliamentary session in Guinea-Bissau the PAIGC had to maintain and lead coalitions to enact policy directives. But now, with 67 seats, the Prime Minister position, and a friendly executive branch, very little short of mass public unrest stands in the party’s way. In a country whose political history is rife with turmoil, such an outcome raises the question: why did the electorate give one party such free reign over the political process?

“Aida, a 21-year-old student who voted for the first time, said: ‘We are tired of the politicians quarrelling. We want water, we want electricity…we just want to be normal’” (IRIN Africa). Wanting to be normal in this situation is wanting a stable government, regardless of freedoms. We are somewhat wary of such a decisive victory in Guinea-Bissau due to the nation’s history of dictatorial rule, and in this case it seems that the nation is veering dangerously close to utter domination of one party, which forces us to ask: What of the rights of the minority?

It is important to reiterate here that the PAIGC has by no means been a minor party; this election was not a vote for change, as seen elsewhere in the world. As discussed in last weeks update, the myriad connections between the PAIGC and the State stretch back to praises for the party in the country’s constitution. The Guinean electorate has strengthened this association, buying the PAIGC package wholesale. Given the party’s long history of internal quarreling, it is unclear whether the PAIGC will be able to deliver on the needs of the people. But in this tiny nation torn apart by military coups, cholera outbreaks, and narcotics trafficking, the PAIGC appears the only institution resilient enough to whether the storm.

And with that thought: Here is picture of President "Nino" Vieira on election day. Enjoy.

Sources:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hcxUy2rY8cESZ5tK12XKzJzkzLgw

http://appablog.wordpress.com/2008/11/18/guinea-bissau-elections-communique-by-the-economic-community-of-west-africa-states-commission/

http://www.unmultimedia.org/radio/english/detail/11261.html

http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnLD613297.html

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iYUmu4O608RmJeKvyow7JLfhzG_Q

http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=81614

PAIGC: The Vanguard

We’ve previously discussed on this blog the striking similarities between symbols of the PAIGC and the State of Guinea-Bissau. Further complicating matters, the language of the Guinea-Bissau Constitution underlines the party’s hegemony, describes the people’s debt owed to the PAIGC, and borders on idolatry. The Preamble to the Constitution begins:

“In an exemplary manner the Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), having been founded on 19 September 1956, has accomplished its political and military action plan [Programa Minimo], consisting of liberating the people of Guinea and Cape Verde, winning the sovereignty of the two respective states simultaneously […] The Party consecrated the independence, winning internal and international harmony, respect and admiration as the form for directing the future of the Guinea nation, namely through the creation and institutionalisation [sic] of the state structure.”

The text clearly intimates that the PAIGC should not only be credited with the creation of the state, but also should be entrusted with it’s future. The preamble goes on to state that “the Popular National Assembly congratulates the PAIGC on paper for being in the vanguard involved in unfolding the conduct of the destiny of the nation.”

Given the above excerpt of the Guinean Constitution, it should come as no surprise that the PAIGC has been the major player since enacting the constitution. Current President João Bernardo "Nino" Vieira was both dictator and head of the PAIGC for nearly 20 years, and was first elected to his current seat in 1994, running with the PAIGC. At that time, the PAIGC won a 62 out of 100 seat majority in the National People’s Assembly in the July 1994 parliamentary elections. And though they lost this majority in 1999, they came back with a plurality of 45 out of 100 seats in 2004. Vieira later ran as an independent in the 2005 presidential race, but his long-standing ties with the PAIGC amounts to yet another victory for the vanguard party.

With the history of PAIGC control, or at the least competition, we can expect a strong showing on their behalf in the elections this Sunday. But does this represent free and fair elections? Does a party that is credited with the creation of the government compete on the same playing field as all others? With such nationalist symbols, can the voter distinguish any separation of the PAIGC and the state? The PAIGC’s ties to the independence movement and its involvement in drafting the constitution (especially the electoral system), give it an unfair advantage over other parties. When you make the rules you know how to play the game. Of course, the issue here is that the game should be fair—these are the lives and freedoms of 1,503,182 people. But in Guinea-Bissau, after a history of PAIGC dictatorship and a bloody civil war, perhaps no one expects politics to be fair.

(please address grading of this week's posts separately)

Sources:
Constitution of Guinea-Bissau
Guinea-Bissau Election Results
CIA World Factbook - Guinea-Bissau

All Hail to the Chief

With the 2008 Guinea-Bissau parliamentary election looming overhead now seems like an apt time to examine the foundation of law in Guinea-Bissau: The Constitution. Initially adopted in 1984, the Guinean Constitution contains a number of fairly concerning articles relating to the creation and control of government.

The Constitution of Guinea-Bissau describes the government as “the supreme executive and administrative organ of the Republic of Guinea-Bissau… [it] conducts the general politics of the country in accordance with its program, approved by the National Popular Assembly.” Article 97 of the Constitution also defines the Prime Minister and various secretaries as the “the government.” In most parliamentary systems the Prime Minister title would indicate an official chosen by the legislature from its own number, however the Guinea-Bissau system takes a different tact on this aspect: the President nominates the Prime Minister as well as the cabinet, as stated in Article 98:

“Article 98
(1) The Prime Minister is nominated by the President of the Republic in accordance with electoral results and after consulting with political parties represented in the National Popular Assembly.
(2) Ministers and secretaries of state are nominated by the President of the Republic, on the proposal of the Prime Minister.”

At first this appears unusual, but hardly sinister. However, as we have noted in previous posts the President, rather than the Prime Minister, also has the power to dissolve parliament. Ergo, the President has the capacity to both hire and fire the government as a whole; President Vieira demonstrated this power earlier this year when he shut down the government, dissolved parliament, and appointed a new Prime Minister and cabinet of his choosing to run a temporary government. He did so without consulting the parliament because he had temporarily done away with that particular constitutionally guaranteed aspect of government.

Further, Article 62 defines the President as “the Head of State, symbol of unity, guarantor of national independence and the Constitution and supreme commander of the Armed Forces,” a particularly unsettling fact given that President Vieira was formerly the country’s dictator who gained power by force, overthrowing the previous government. Article 120 also gives the President the final say over the selection of and power to swear in Justices of the Guinean Supreme Court.

Given the de facto dictatorship given to the President by the constitution, what is the point of having a free and fairly elected legislature? Is there a free and fairly elected legislature in Guinea-Bissau? President Vieira’s power over parliament, the judiciary system, and the armed forces shows a clear lack of checks and balances that is an impediment to the “pluralistic, free and just society” which the preamble of the Guinean constitution mandates.

Discussion of elections gives legitimacy to a government and in the case of Guinea-Bissau we must admit that the results of the election will only serve to make the government only appear more legitimate. The truth is that nearly all of the power of actual governance is concentrated in the hands of the president; Parliamentary elections in Guinea-Bissau do not signify that the voice of the people will be heard in policy making - How can they when the results are subject to the will of the President?

Sources:
Constitution of Guinea Bissau
Guinea Bissau in turmoil after Parliament Dissolved (AFP)

Voter Turnout in Guinea-Bissau

High Voter Turnout is Likely
Guinea-Bissau’s election is only 9 days away. There are a couple of reasons that may contribute to high turnout in Guinea-Bissau.
First, elections are held on Sundays. Sunday, November 16 will be the Parliamentary election. As a result, voting does not interfere with the typical workweek, which is one way it may contribute to higher turnout. One of the primary reasons the United States has not attempted to switch Election Day to a weekend is the interference with religious holidays for many citizens. Seventy-eight and one-half percent of United States citizens are Christians (World Fact Book: United States)[1]. For Christians, Sunday is the Sabbath and many believe it would be an inappropriate day for elections. In contrast, Guinea-Bissau’s population is 50% Muslim, and 40% have Indigenous beliefs. Only 5% of Guinea-Bissau’s citizens are Christian (World Fact Book “Guinea-Bissau”)[2]. Muslim’s have a day of rest and prayer on Friday, as opposed to Sunday. This makes Sunday a more fitting day for Guinea-Bissau elections than it is for the United States elections.
A second factor that could contribute to Guinea-Bissau’s high turnout may be the view that reform is underway, and elections are significant to continue reforms and prevent instability. Guinea-Bissau has experienced political instability. There is a risk of the country becoming a narco-state, which is a state that is controlled largely by drug cartels where law enforcement is ineffective.[3] Some already consider Guinea-Bissau a narco-state.[4] To combat these problems, the UN has become involved. The UN has overseen and assisted with Guinea-Bissau elections in the past, with an attempt to move the country toward stability and democracy and to ensure fair elections. Guinea-Bissau has made a commitment to the UN that the November 16th Parliamentary elections will be transparent, free and fair. The international community, at the suggestion of the UN, has given money to help support this effort.[5] Voters may feel that their role in this effort is to elect parties to parliament that will assist in eliminating instability and turn the country around. Voter turnout typically increases when citizens feel that their vote will have a significant impact on the future of the country. Because instability is a significant issue, it is likely that voters in Guinea-Bissau will view their role in the election as important.
Finally, in Guinea-Bissau’s last Parliamentary election, voter turnout was 80% of registered voters[6]. Although turnout is typically higher for Guinea-Bissau Presidential elections, 80% of registered voters is high turnout. It is important to note, however, that not all eligible voters may be registered voters. For example, if only a small portion of eligible voters are registered and these individuals vote, the percent of registered voters that turnout may be high but the overall voter turnout may not be. As a result, past voter turnout of registered voters in Guinea-Bissau does not help predict turnout of eligible voters in the upcoming election.

What Does High Voter Turnout Mean for Guinea-Bissau?
High voter turnout can help establish legitimacy for the elected government. If voter turnout is low, the perception that the elected government was not widely supported can interfere with its ability to accomplish goals and gain public support for projects in office. The opposite also seems to hold true. If a party of candidate is elected with widespread support and high voter turnout they are perceived to have the backing of a significant amount of the population and may find it easier to accomplish goals in office or get support for programs and initiatives. Legitimacy is particularly important for Guinea-Bissau as a state that has recently transitioned into a democracy, but still faces many challenges. A strong government that is perceived to be legitimate will be more likely to remain stable.

[1] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/us.html
[2] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/pu.html
[3] http://www.wordreference.com/definition/narco-state
[4] http://www.africanloft.com/guinea-bissau-the-first-african-narco-state/
[5] http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=28586&Cr=guinea-bissau&Cr1=
[6] http://www.nationmaster.com/country/pu-guinea-bissau/dem-democracy

Guinea-Bissau and the World Community

As with elections in the past, Guinea-Bissau is counting on assistance from the world community through the United Nations and European Union. In those elections other nations have offered monetary assistance, as well as assistance with election observation (Refworld). The leaders of this small nation feel that the encouragement of the more industrialized and rich nations that make up the United Nations and European Union is key to having a successful and fair election. However, given the disabling events that have taken place in the past, international organizations have certain fears for the upcoming legislative elections, but positive events are taking place as well.

The presence of the military is a potentially troubling aspect that the United Nations. Fears are springing up that the military could exert undue force in this election and change the outcome from what might be intended. Another valid fear that international actors have is the influence of the unlawful drug traffickers. As their power grows the possibility of a fair election lessens. This threat is given credence by the fact that the attorney general Manuel Cabal’s life has been threatened for investigating charges of drug trafficking (Refworld). A third, possibly fatal aspect is the threat of terrorism. Officials in Guinea-Bissau have detained two Mauritanian citizens in connection with the death of four French citizens and, in doing so have received threats of retribution (All Africa).

With all of those factors taken into account there is still positive news from Guinea-Bissau. In total 72% of voters have been registered and the United Nations estimates that the country is 70% prepared to hold these elections. Also, the International Monetary Fund after having withdrawn funds in 2001 has reinstated aid to Guinea-Bissau on a conditional basis. The European Unions has also contributed 600,000 Euro to help with the cost of the election (Refworld).

Reforms have been suggested by the United Nations such as greater voter registration efforts and voter education to a higher degree than in the past, but the already fragile hope for a peaceful election in Guinea-Bissau hangs by a thread and any major negative events could throw it off course (United Nations).

Sources:
1. All Africa
2. UN Refugee Agency’s RefWorld
3. United Nations: Background Paper on Guinea-Bissau legislative elections on 16 November 2008

Ballot Business

Because Guinea-Bissau is a parliamentary system, each voter chooses a party as represented on the following ballot for the legislature:

(Source: http://aceproject.org/ero-en/regions/africa/GW/Guinea-Bissau%20-%20ballot%20paper%20(leg)%204.jpg)

Each party is represented not only by the party name, but by a party seal and flag. In all ballots which we have been able to uncover the PAIGC has been listed first, possibly due to the PAIGC’s historical legacy as the militant revolutionaries who gained initial independence from Portugal. Their placement on the ballot has probably also contributed to their political success in previous parliamentary elections. The PAIGC’s seal and flag are also nearly identical to the seal and flag of Guinea-Bissau, most likely due to this same revolutionary legacy and likely also contributing to their success.

The ballots for the 2005 presidential election featured pictures of the candidates along with their party affiliation. The CIA World Fact Book places adult literacy at 42.4% of the total population, and only 27.4% of the female population. Because Guinea-Bissau has universal suffrage for those over 18 the inclusion of graphic representations of parties and photos of candidates on the ballots is a way for those who cannot read to differentiate between parties and candidates.

(Source: http://aceproject.org/ero-en/regions/africa/GW/Guinea-Bissau%20-%20ballot%20paper%20(pres)%202.jpg)

Sources:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pu.html

http://aceproject.org/regions-en/gi/GW/default

Written by: Andrea

Contributions by: Andrew

2004 Electoral Rewind

In order to be prepared for the parliamentary election coming up on November 16^th (pending funding from some external source) we’re going to do a little recap of the trials and tribulation of the last parliamentary election, which happened on March 28^th, 2004. The results were as follows:

Party	Valid Votes	% [of Valid Votes]	Seats
African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC)	141,455	31.45%	45
Social Renovation Party (PRS)	11,354	2.52%	35
United Social Democratic Party (PUSD)	72,362	16.09%	17
Electoral Union (UE)	18,253	4.06%	2
United Popular Alliance	5,776	1.28%	1
Others	100,555	22.36%	0

Source: http://www.electionguide.org/results.php?ID=195)

These numbers suggest that the vote remainder (e.g. LR Imperiali) or averages method (e.g. D’Hondt ) are beneficial to the larger parties, PAIGC and PRS.

We mentioned last week that the upcoming election was appealing to foreign donors for financing, which is not surprising in the context: Guinea-Bissau’s last parliamentary election was funded by foreign backers. The primary reasoning behind this funding was a hope that through free and fair elections Guinea-BissauSierra Leone could become an example for unstable countries such as , Liberia and Cote d’Ivoire which are in its geographical proximity. This was not a success. The elections were plagued with accusations of election fraud made by the PRS, and disenfranchisement was rampant.

Foreign observers from the United Nations, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries, La Francophonie and bilateral donors such as Portugal, Russia and the United States were present and noted that “one third of all polling stations in Bissau had remained closed.” This is particularly unsettling because Bissau is home to a third of the countries 1.3 million people.

Polling stations that were closed were open the next day for voting, but there is no assurance that all those who had attempted to vote on the actual election had the opportunity to cast their ballots. A number of polling stations which opened hours behind schedule on election day were told to remain open later in order for more citizens to vote, “…though an electricity cut meant that voting would have to take place by torch and candle light.”

During the previous election funding came primarily from western sources such as the United States, Russia, and Portugal. Given the recent increase in interaction between China and Guinea-Bissau, and the PRC’s avid interest in currying favor among African nations we wonder if the funding for this year’s election might not have a more diverse background. On August 28^th of this year ground was broken on new government ministerial buildings that are being built thanks to funds donated by the PRC. President Vieira remarked that ”the Guinea-Bissau government was sincerely grateful for China's generous help” and “the Chinese government and its people have always been willing to help African nations as a whole,” There have also been reports of Macau and mainland China interest in investing in Guinea-Bissau in a number of areas including telecommunications, natural resources, and a potential buy out of Bissau Air by the Chinese government. We suspect that this evidence of increased economic dealings will be followed by greater investment in Guinea-Bissau’s infrastructure in order to better facilitate trade and significant financial assistance in the November 16^th election to strengthen ties with the Guinea-Bissau government.

But no matter what the funding source this year, the lack of organization in Guinea-Bissau’s previous parliamentary election and the added unrest caused by President Vieira’s dissolution of parliament in August it’s safe to say that the upcoming election is sure to be an interesting occasion.

Sources:

http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=49307

http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=49802

http://www.electionguide.org/results.php?ID=195

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-08/29/content_9734165.htm

http://www.macaudailytimesnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=16447&Itemid=28

Written by Andrea

Contributions by Andrew

Election Woes in the Time of Cholera

There are two news events in Guinea-Bissau to take note of and a third event which could have implications for the future presidential candidate. The news that “The Bissau-Guinean Supreme Court announced that 21 political parties and coalitions have registered for the November 16 legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Cape Verde and Guinea Bissau (PAIGC) led by Carlos Gomes, Jr., and the Party for Social Renovation (PRS) are among the parties which will contest these legislative elections. President Nino Vieira has appealed to the international community for financial assistance in the amount of 3.7 million Euros to organize the elections.” This means that the candidates have been nominated and accepted as legitimate by their congress, which should set the stage for any campaigning the various parties might do. It also brings to the forefront that Guinea-Bissau cannot actually afford to hold their own elections, which might imply that spending cuts will necessitate fewer polling places and lead to disenfranchised voters or other negative impacts.

The other major piece of news regarding the campaign would be the massive cholera outbreak which the World Health Organization just upgraded to the status of an emergency, at 6,461 cases of Cholera in Guinea-Bissau and other regional countries and approximately a 94% fatality rate. The government’s inability to control the outbreak should be a focus of the candidates of the election. If you examine the deposition of previous candidates “He couldn’t solve the problems”, any Prime Minister selected at the conclusion this campaign would do well to ensure he either solves the problems or at least controls this outbreak.

Sources for this would include the U.S. State department and Allafrica.com.

GB in the PRC

16 September 2008: At the close of his visit to the Paralympic Games in Beijing, President Joao Bernardo Vieira met with PRC Chairman Hu Jintao.

"On China-Africa relations, the Chinese president pointed out that it was an important part of China’s independent foreign policy of peace, as well as China's long-term strategic choice to consolidate and develop friendly cooperation with the African countries. The implementation of the eight policy measures towards Africa that the Chinese government announced at the Beijing summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) has made significant achievements. China has increased aid to Africa, basically finished writing off debts and tariff exemption and successfully launched China-Africa Development Fund. Such China-assisted projects as schools, hospitals and agricultural technology demonstration centers are under implementation and China has helped the African countries train 8,400 people. China will continue to work with African countries to comprehensively implement the consensus reached at the Beijing summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), and will push forward the China-Africa new strategic partnership in a down-to-earth manner, he added" (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China)

Read the full article here: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

Political Parties

There are over 35 active political parties in Guinea-Bissau (Macau Daily 2008). Three major parties control most of the parliamentary seats. These three parties are the African Party for Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC), the Social Renovation Party (PRS), and the United Social Democratic Party (PUSD) (Bureau of African Affairs 2008). These parties signed a national stability pact in March 2007, with the goal of preventing coups that had caused instability in the past. On July 25, 2008 the PAIGC party left the pact. The impact that PAIGC's absence will have is unknown. Some worry that the pact is needed to prevent a coup or takeover following the upcoming parliamentary election (IRIN 2008).

The existence of so many political parties in Guinea-Bissau means that individual citizens have the opportunity to vote for a party that addresses very specific issues they are concerned with. However, there are problems that can be argued to result from so many political parties in the states. (1) When there are many political parties, some tend to focus on a single issue, or represent a single group of people. This happens because if all the parties were representing broad ideologies, the parties would overlap and some would be the same. It would be very difficult to have 35 different political parties. If political parties are focused on very specific issues rather than broad platforms, it may be hard to establish decisions on issues that are not addresses by the party's platforms and ideals. When decisions are made regarding issues that most of the parties in parliament do not have a particular stance on, the decisions are unpredictable. That means voters cannot vote for a party that will represent them on the issue, because the party has no stance and may vote either way in parliament. (2) Guinea-Bissau's proportional system enables many of the parties to gain seats in parliament (In a plurality system, like the United States, it is much more difficult for minority parties to gain seats in the legislature). The diversity of parties with seats in legislature may cause a fragmented parliament. (3)The fragmentation of the legislature and political arena, in combination with the poor living conditions in Guinea-Bissau, makes the state more vulnerable to coups. (4) Finally, with 35 political parties in Guinea-Bissau, it is difficult for voters to know about each party running and what those parties represent. Even after learning about the parties, keeping them straight would be hard. Some parties have very similar names. For example the Democratic Front and the Democratic Social front sound similar. A voter could vote for one with the intention of voting for another if they were unaware that there were 2 parties with that name and not looking out for it while voting. Similarly, the Renewal and Development Party, Progress and Renewal Party, and Social Renewal party could cause confusion for voters who are unaware of the small differences in the names and not watching for them as they vote. Unfortunately, this are not the only examples of parties in Guinea-Bissau that have similar names.

List of Political Parties in Guinea-Bissau

Democratic Alliance (DA), Guinean Socialist Alliance (ASG), Guinean Civil Forum-Social Democracy (FCGSD), Democratic Front (FD), Democratic Social Front (FDS), Front for the Liberation and Independence of Guinea (FLING), Guinean League for Ecological Protection (LIPE), Guinean Democratic Movement (MDG), Movement for Unity and Democracy (MUDE), African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), Democratic Convergence Party (PCD), Democratic Party for Progress (PDP), Democratic Socialist Party (SDS), Manifest Party of the People (PMP), Popular Party (PP), Guinean People's Party (PPG), Renewal and Development Party (PRD), Progress and Renewal Party (PRP), Social Renewal Party (PRS), Social Democratic Party (PSD), Socialist Party of Guinea-Bissau (PS-GB), Solidarity and Labor Party (PST), Labor Party (PT), National Unity Party (PUN), United Social Democratic Party (PUSD), Resistance of Guinea-Bissau-Bafata Movement (RBG-MB), Union for Change (UM), and National Union for Democracy and Progress (UNDP) (African Elections Database 2007)

Works Cited in This Post

African Elections Database. "Guinea-Bissau." 17 April 2007. Accessed 10 September 2008.

Bureau of African Affairs. U.S. State Department. "Guinea-Bissau." July 2008. Accessed 10 September 2008.

IRIN Daily News. "Election Fears as Unity Government Splits." 31 July 2008. Accessed 10 September 2008. ReportId=79558>

Macau Daily. "Guinea-Bissau Announces November Poll." 28 March 2008. Accessed 10 September 2008.

Guinea-Bissau Government History

The history of Guinea-Bissau's government is important to know before diving into the current events about their upcoming parliamentary elections. Guinea-Bissau was originally a Portugese colony that gained independence from them in 1974. The country has never really had prolonged political stability with military coups since becoming autonomous. During the presidental elections in July 2005, VIEIRA was elected on a second ballot over his top competitor SANHA. The legislative branch of Guinea-Bissau is the unicameral National People's Assembly. This congress consisted of several different parties and elections are held for it every four years. The party that won most of the seats back in the 2004 elections was the PAIGC with slightly over 31% of the vote. However, this branch was dismissed by the president because they failed to form a coalition with the other parties.


-Seth P.


Source: CIA - The World Factbook

Welcome!

Welcome to the Guinea-Bissau Election Tracker for the 2008 Parliamentary Election. This first post should serve as a brief political/electoral history of Guinea-Bissau leading up to this stimulating cycle.

Structure
Guinea-Bissau legislature is a proportionally represented, 100-member unicameral parliament subject to reelection every four years. The president is elected in a two round, runoff voting system once every five years. As well as appointing a prime minister, the executive has the power to dissolve parliament. Suffrage is universal for those 18 years of age and older.

Recent Uncertainty
On 25 July 2008, then Prime Minister Martinho N’Dafa Cabi (PAIGC ) removed several senior officials without consulting the PAIGC, leaders of the unity government. Following the PAIGC’s speedy withdrawal from the coalition, President João Bernardo “Nino” Vieira (I) dissolved parliament, ousted PM Cabi, and appointed Carlos Correia (I) as his replacement on 5 August. Until the 16 November elections, the standing committee of the national assembly serves in place of the legislative body.

Links:
All Africa: Guinea Bissau: Elections Fears As Unity Government Splits
Irin News: GUINEA-BISSAU: Key political events since independence
CIA Factbook: Guinea-Bissau