Stability / Continuity: Election Day 2008

Election day has come and gone in Guinea-Bissau and with initial vote counting completed, the Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) has once again won a decisive victory. Eighty-two percent of Guineans participated in the 16 November elections, awarding 67 seats to the PAIGC, 28 to the Party for Social Renewal (PRS), and three to the Republican Party for Independence and Development (PRID). The National Democratic Party and the Democratic Alliance each took one seat.

Voter turnout in the past elections in Guinea-Bissau has been very high, and this year was no exception. Vladimir Monteiro a spokesmen for the United Nations office in Guinea-Bissau calculated that the turnout in this parliamentary election was about 75 to 80 percent. Monteiro also expressed pleasure in the presence of the many women that both voted and helped oversee the election process.

Calling the electoral process a “victory for democracy” a special envoy of the United Nations was impressed with what they saw. International observers were out in force for the election; in total more than 150 United Nations observers oversaw the election process. No major problems were reported from any of the U.N. participants and all indications are that they are confident that the outcome will truly reflect the will of the people.

Another international group with a vested interest in the election was the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). A total of 45 election observers from ECOWAS not only observed the voting but the opening and closing of the polls and are today observing the counting process. Theses agents were deployed in many of the polling stations around the country and were pleased with the following aspects:

1. Election Commissions were prepared to hold the election

2. Voter turnout was high

3. Voters were in good spirits

4. Election officials adequately knew the rules and the processes

5. There was a calmness felt amongst the voters

6. The process was smooth

7. The voting was without hindrance.

Surprisingly, ECOWAS had only two minor complaints:

1. Election material arriving late to Bissora

2. A low supply of indelible ink at polling stations.

These minors occurrences had little to no affect on the well run election process and seemingly had no affect on the outcome of the election.

In the 2004 parliamentary election cycle, the PAIGC won a plurality of 45 seats. In last Sunday’s election the former party of now independent (in-name-only) President Vieira won a clear majority in the legislative body. Leader of the PAIGC, Carlos Gomez Jr. was returned to the post of Prime Minister. In the past parliamentary session in Guinea-Bissau the PAIGC had to maintain and lead coalitions to enact policy directives. But now, with 67 seats, the Prime Minister position, and a friendly executive branch, very little short of mass public unrest stands in the party’s way. In a country whose political history is rife with turmoil, such an outcome raises the question: why did the electorate give one party such free reign over the political process?

“Aida, a 21-year-old student who voted for the first time, said: ‘We are tired of the politicians quarrelling. We want water, we want electricity…we just want to be normal’” (IRIN Africa). Wanting to be normal in this situation is wanting a stable government, regardless of freedoms. We are somewhat wary of such a decisive victory in Guinea-Bissau due to the nation’s history of dictatorial rule, and in this case it seems that the nation is veering dangerously close to utter domination of one party, which forces us to ask: What of the rights of the minority?

It is important to reiterate here that the PAIGC has by no means been a minor party; this election was not a vote for change, as seen elsewhere in the world. As discussed in last weeks update, the myriad connections between the PAIGC and the State stretch back to praises for the party in the country’s constitution. The Guinean electorate has strengthened this association, buying the PAIGC package wholesale. Given the party’s long history of internal quarreling, it is unclear whether the PAIGC will be able to deliver on the needs of the people. But in this tiny nation torn apart by military coups, cholera outbreaks, and narcotics trafficking, the PAIGC appears the only institution resilient enough to whether the storm.

And with that thought: Here is picture of President "Nino" Vieira on election day. Enjoy.

Sources:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hcxUy2rY8cESZ5tK12XKzJzkzLgw

http://appablog.wordpress.com/2008/11/18/guinea-bissau-elections-communique-by-the-economic-community-of-west-africa-states-commission/

http://www.unmultimedia.org/radio/english/detail/11261.html

http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnLD613297.html

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iYUmu4O608RmJeKvyow7JLfhzG_Q

http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=81614

PAIGC: The Vanguard

We’ve previously discussed on this blog the striking similarities between symbols of the PAIGC and the State of Guinea-Bissau. Further complicating matters, the language of the Guinea-Bissau Constitution underlines the party’s hegemony, describes the people’s debt owed to the PAIGC, and borders on idolatry. The Preamble to the Constitution begins:

“In an exemplary manner the Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), having been founded on 19 September 1956, has accomplished its political and military action plan [Programa Minimo], consisting of liberating the people of Guinea and Cape Verde, winning the sovereignty of the two respective states simultaneously […] The Party consecrated the independence, winning internal and international harmony, respect and admiration as the form for directing the future of the Guinea nation, namely through the creation and institutionalisation [sic] of the state structure.”

The text clearly intimates that the PAIGC should not only be credited with the creation of the state, but also should be entrusted with it’s future. The preamble goes on to state that “the Popular National Assembly congratulates the PAIGC on paper for being in the vanguard involved in unfolding the conduct of the destiny of the nation.”

Given the above excerpt of the Guinean Constitution, it should come as no surprise that the PAIGC has been the major player since enacting the constitution. Current President João Bernardo "Nino" Vieira was both dictator and head of the PAIGC for nearly 20 years, and was first elected to his current seat in 1994, running with the PAIGC. At that time, the PAIGC won a 62 out of 100 seat majority in the National People’s Assembly in the July 1994 parliamentary elections. And though they lost this majority in 1999, they came back with a plurality of 45 out of 100 seats in 2004. Vieira later ran as an independent in the 2005 presidential race, but his long-standing ties with the PAIGC amounts to yet another victory for the vanguard party.

With the history of PAIGC control, or at the least competition, we can expect a strong showing on their behalf in the elections this Sunday. But does this represent free and fair elections? Does a party that is credited with the creation of the government compete on the same playing field as all others? With such nationalist symbols, can the voter distinguish any separation of the PAIGC and the state? The PAIGC’s ties to the independence movement and its involvement in drafting the constitution (especially the electoral system), give it an unfair advantage over other parties. When you make the rules you know how to play the game. Of course, the issue here is that the game should be fair—these are the lives and freedoms of 1,503,182 people. But in Guinea-Bissau, after a history of PAIGC dictatorship and a bloody civil war, perhaps no one expects politics to be fair.

(please address grading of this week's posts separately)

Sources:
Constitution of Guinea-Bissau
Guinea-Bissau Election Results
CIA World Factbook - Guinea-Bissau

All Hail to the Chief

With the 2008 Guinea-Bissau parliamentary election looming overhead now seems like an apt time to examine the foundation of law in Guinea-Bissau: The Constitution. Initially adopted in 1984, the Guinean Constitution contains a number of fairly concerning articles relating to the creation and control of government.

The Constitution of Guinea-Bissau describes the government as “the supreme executive and administrative organ of the Republic of Guinea-Bissau… [it] conducts the general politics of the country in accordance with its program, approved by the National Popular Assembly.” Article 97 of the Constitution also defines the Prime Minister and various secretaries as the “the government.” In most parliamentary systems the Prime Minister title would indicate an official chosen by the legislature from its own number, however the Guinea-Bissau system takes a different tact on this aspect: the President nominates the Prime Minister as well as the cabinet, as stated in Article 98:

“Article 98
(1) The Prime Minister is nominated by the President of the Republic in accordance with electoral results and after consulting with political parties represented in the National Popular Assembly.
(2) Ministers and secretaries of state are nominated by the President of the Republic, on the proposal of the Prime Minister.”

At first this appears unusual, but hardly sinister. However, as we have noted in previous posts the President, rather than the Prime Minister, also has the power to dissolve parliament. Ergo, the President has the capacity to both hire and fire the government as a whole; President Vieira demonstrated this power earlier this year when he shut down the government, dissolved parliament, and appointed a new Prime Minister and cabinet of his choosing to run a temporary government. He did so without consulting the parliament because he had temporarily done away with that particular constitutionally guaranteed aspect of government.

Further, Article 62 defines the President as “the Head of State, symbol of unity, guarantor of national independence and the Constitution and supreme commander of the Armed Forces,” a particularly unsettling fact given that President Vieira was formerly the country’s dictator who gained power by force, overthrowing the previous government. Article 120 also gives the President the final say over the selection of and power to swear in Justices of the Guinean Supreme Court.

Given the de facto dictatorship given to the President by the constitution, what is the point of having a free and fairly elected legislature? Is there a free and fairly elected legislature in Guinea-Bissau? President Vieira’s power over parliament, the judiciary system, and the armed forces shows a clear lack of checks and balances that is an impediment to the “pluralistic, free and just society” which the preamble of the Guinean constitution mandates.

Discussion of elections gives legitimacy to a government and in the case of Guinea-Bissau we must admit that the results of the election will only serve to make the government only appear more legitimate. The truth is that nearly all of the power of actual governance is concentrated in the hands of the president; Parliamentary elections in Guinea-Bissau do not signify that the voice of the people will be heard in policy making - How can they when the results are subject to the will of the President?

Sources:
Constitution of Guinea Bissau
Guinea Bissau in turmoil after Parliament Dissolved (AFP)

Voter Turnout in Guinea-Bissau

High Voter Turnout is Likely
Guinea-Bissau’s election is only 9 days away. There are a couple of reasons that may contribute to high turnout in Guinea-Bissau.
First, elections are held on Sundays. Sunday, November 16 will be the Parliamentary election. As a result, voting does not interfere with the typical workweek, which is one way it may contribute to higher turnout. One of the primary reasons the United States has not attempted to switch Election Day to a weekend is the interference with religious holidays for many citizens. Seventy-eight and one-half percent of United States citizens are Christians (World Fact Book: United States)[1]. For Christians, Sunday is the Sabbath and many believe it would be an inappropriate day for elections. In contrast, Guinea-Bissau’s population is 50% Muslim, and 40% have Indigenous beliefs. Only 5% of Guinea-Bissau’s citizens are Christian (World Fact Book “Guinea-Bissau”)[2]. Muslim’s have a day of rest and prayer on Friday, as opposed to Sunday. This makes Sunday a more fitting day for Guinea-Bissau elections than it is for the United States elections.
A second factor that could contribute to Guinea-Bissau’s high turnout may be the view that reform is underway, and elections are significant to continue reforms and prevent instability. Guinea-Bissau has experienced political instability. There is a risk of the country becoming a narco-state, which is a state that is controlled largely by drug cartels where law enforcement is ineffective.[3] Some already consider Guinea-Bissau a narco-state.[4] To combat these problems, the UN has become involved. The UN has overseen and assisted with Guinea-Bissau elections in the past, with an attempt to move the country toward stability and democracy and to ensure fair elections. Guinea-Bissau has made a commitment to the UN that the November 16th Parliamentary elections will be transparent, free and fair. The international community, at the suggestion of the UN, has given money to help support this effort.[5] Voters may feel that their role in this effort is to elect parties to parliament that will assist in eliminating instability and turn the country around. Voter turnout typically increases when citizens feel that their vote will have a significant impact on the future of the country. Because instability is a significant issue, it is likely that voters in Guinea-Bissau will view their role in the election as important.
Finally, in Guinea-Bissau’s last Parliamentary election, voter turnout was 80% of registered voters[6]. Although turnout is typically higher for Guinea-Bissau Presidential elections, 80% of registered voters is high turnout. It is important to note, however, that not all eligible voters may be registered voters. For example, if only a small portion of eligible voters are registered and these individuals vote, the percent of registered voters that turnout may be high but the overall voter turnout may not be. As a result, past voter turnout of registered voters in Guinea-Bissau does not help predict turnout of eligible voters in the upcoming election.

What Does High Voter Turnout Mean for Guinea-Bissau?
High voter turnout can help establish legitimacy for the elected government. If voter turnout is low, the perception that the elected government was not widely supported can interfere with its ability to accomplish goals and gain public support for projects in office. The opposite also seems to hold true. If a party of candidate is elected with widespread support and high voter turnout they are perceived to have the backing of a significant amount of the population and may find it easier to accomplish goals in office or get support for programs and initiatives. Legitimacy is particularly important for Guinea-Bissau as a state that has recently transitioned into a democracy, but still faces many challenges. A strong government that is perceived to be legitimate will be more likely to remain stable.

[1] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/us.html
[2] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/pu.html
[3] http://www.wordreference.com/definition/narco-state
[4] http://www.africanloft.com/guinea-bissau-the-first-african-narco-state/
[5] http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=28586&Cr=guinea-bissau&Cr1=
[6] http://www.nationmaster.com/country/pu-guinea-bissau/dem-democracy