As with elections in the past, Guinea-Bissau is counting on assistance from the world community through the United Nations and European Union. In those elections other nations have offered monetary assistance, as well as assistance with election observation (Refworld). The leaders of this small nation feel that the encouragement of the more industrialized and rich nations that make up the United Nations and European Union is key to having a successful and fair election. However, given the disabling events that have taken place in the past, international organizations have certain fears for the upcoming legislative elections, but positive events are taking place as well.
The presence of the military is a potentially troubling aspect that the United Nations. Fears are springing up that the military could exert undue force in this election and change the outcome from what might be intended. Another valid fear that international actors have is the influence of the unlawful drug traffickers. As their power grows the possibility of a fair election lessens. This threat is given credence by the fact that the attorney general Manuel Cabal’s life has been threatened for investigating charges of drug trafficking (Refworld). A third, possibly fatal aspect is the threat of terrorism. Officials in Guinea-Bissau have detained two Mauritanian citizens in connection with the death of four French citizens and, in doing so have received threats of retribution (All Africa).
With all of those factors taken into account there is still positive news from Guinea-Bissau. In total 72% of voters have been registered and the United Nations estimates that the country is 70% prepared to hold these elections. Also, the International Monetary Fund after having withdrawn funds in 2001 has reinstated aid to Guinea-Bissau on a conditional basis. The European Unions has also contributed 600,000 Euro to help with the cost of the election (Refworld).
Reforms have been suggested by the United Nations such as greater voter registration efforts and voter education to a higher degree than in the past, but the already fragile hope for a peaceful election in Guinea-Bissau hangs by a thread and any major negative events could throw it off course (United Nations).
Sources:
1. All Africa
2. UN Refugee Agency’s RefWorld
3. United Nations: Background Paper on Guinea-Bissau legislative elections on 16 November 2008
03 October 2008
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